Three in five out of home meal or snack occasions now involve a bakery item, the latest MCA analysis has shown.
The Bakery and Sandwich Tracker Q3 2017 shows that across all meal and snack day-parts, a bakery item is consumed on 60% of visits, equating to c.7.6 billion occasions annually.
Breakfast remains the driver of out-of-home bakery sales with 66.2% of occasions involving a bakery item, however savoury bakery incidence is greatest at lunch and sweet bakery at snacking, suggesting more divergent preferences at breakfast.
Total bakery incidence has fallen since Q1 2017, driven predominantly by declines in sweet bakery. Savoury bakery incidence has remained relatively stable over the past few quarters, now at 44.1% of out of home meal and snack occasions. Sweet bakery incidence fell most significantly at snacking.
Sweet bakery incidence across all day-parts fell from 27.4% in Q1 2017 to 21.5% in Q3 2017. This, in tandem with overall eating out frequency declines, implies a significant double-digit fall in annual occasions, down to 2.7 billion.
The data shows strong growth for burgers, with incidence growing at lunch, dinner and snacking over the past year, up 1pp to 9.1% on a total day-part level, and consumed on 1.2 billion occasions annually. Fast food and pubs are benefiting from the rise in burgers, together comprising 80% of all burger occasions, with these visits more often taken for a treat or as a get together compared to bakery visits generally.
Total bread carrier incidence has fallen from 27.7% to 26.1% from Q3 2016 to the same period a year on, with declines in sandwiches and bagels at breakfast, and also bagels at snacking. However, subs have become increasingly popular at breakfast, lunch and snacking.
Doughnuts increased 1pp in incidence over the past year, now eaten on 2.5% of total out of home meal or snack occasions. While doughnuts became more popular at all day-parts, the greatest increase, of 2pp, took place at snacking. Good value is the biggest driver on visits involving doughnuts, with the relatively low spend supermarket to-go channel top for this item.
Sweet muffins are consumed on 2.8% of out of home occasions, up from 1.9% in Q3 2016, with growth at all four day-parts. The top sweet bakery channel, coffee shop/café is particularly important for muffins, accounting for 47% of all visits.
Croissant incidence is up from 1.4% to 1.9% of total out of home occasions, with the growth driven primarily by increased popularity at snacking. Croissants are consumed on 2.1% of snacking visits, up from 1.2% in Q3 2016. Work-based journeys and work/study breaks are particularly important reasons for consumers to snack on croissants.
Croissants are the most popular sweet bakery item at breakfast, consumed on 5% of visits, after a steep decline in cake incidence since Q3 2016.
