Stefan Chomka, M&C Report columnist and Restaurant magazine deputy editor, looks ahead to what 2014 has in store, with 10 predictions, some “dead-certs” like Alan Yau’s opening of ‘Asian gastropub’ Duck & Rice rekindling publicans’ desires to return to the heady days of the mid 1990s where a Thai restaurant was the pub accessory du jour; and some more avant-garde, including the possible opening of bread and butter concept called B&B.
No doubt the journalists at Drapers will be foreseeing the return of the Bermuda short and bum bag, The Architectural Review will once again lay out its future blueprint for buildings made entirely out of reinforced bubblewrap and the bods at New Scientist will predict that global warming is finally proven to be a figment of our imagination and that killer ants will one day rule the world (the latter sounds more plausible).
On the food and drink side, even the most myopic of industry commentators will be able to recognise those current trends that have enough of a prevailing wind behind them to stand the test of 2014 - namely the growth of US-style by-the-slice pizza parlours; the continued rise of - dotted with sporadic backlashes against - dude food; steady movement in the burgeoning US barbecue market and the opening every 14 seconds of another pub/restaurant that sells - or at least purports to sell - craft beer. Oh, and that steak, chicken - rotisserie, fried or otherwise - burgers and Asian food are going to be popular too.
If that were the sum total of what 2014 has to offer then we’re in for a pretty prosaic 12 months. Except, of course, it won’t be. Recent history tells us that the eating out sector has numerous surprises up its sleeve and that next year will be no different. After all, who would have predicted at the start of 2013 that Giraffe would fall into the hands of Tesco or that Russell Norman would open a bona fide boozer? Not me.
But that was an aberration. This year I intend to have every conceivable trend - and a few inconceivable ones as well - locked down, outlined, underlined and highlighted in fluorescent ink. Needless to say, you read it here first:
Five ‘dead-cert’ 2014 restaurant predictions
1 Alan Yau’s opening of ‘Asian gastropub’ Duck & Rice rekindles publicans’ desires to return to the heady days of the mid 1990s where a Thai restaurant was the pub accessory du jour. This time round pubs are a bit more open to fusion and street food, with beer-friendly dishes such as Japanese katsu curry and Karē-pan (curry bread), Korean fried chicken and Taiwanese steamed hirata buns making an appearance.
2 The sports bar - long term home of the pot-bellied Manchester United top wearer - becomes gentrified as someone finally opens a sport-friendly establishment that serves up more than mainstream lager, ‘famous’ hamburgers, pent-up post-football aggression, unfettered disappointment and a pool cue fight at 1am. You know, like the kind you see all over America.
3 Barbecue moves beyond the American pitt style with restaurants embracing the Spanish and Italian style of barbecuing food over wood for a more primitive style of cooking. Baby back ribs will have been replaced by Iberico pork ribs across the country by the year end.
4 Chain restaurants continue to take inspiration from their smaller brethren. Following on from Giraffe’s adoption of the kimchi burger - a Hawksmoor classic - 2014 sees the inclusion of dishes such as duck and waffle, truffled mac ‘n’ cheese and duck shepherd’s pie and on multi-site menus.
5 Major restaurant chains continue to launch unbranded spin-offs that move them into new territory. New on the block in 2014 will be flat-iron steak and chips restaurant MEAT, Mexican canteen Yucatan and all-day dining joint Slouch (or some similar names, anyway).
And five slightly more avant-garde ones that could still happen
1 The tight restaurant menu trend continues in the first half of the year with the opening of bread and butter concept B&B and the ill-fated taramasalata bar 6As. Yet it’s the launch of steak and soft drink chain T-bone & Tizer in May that proves to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back with a consumer backlash and street protests in East Dulwich for greater choice. In September, new international food concept Eat the World opens to readdress the balance, serving 470 different styles of steak, 65 salads and an ice cream bar comprising 2,100 different flavour combinations.
2 Waitrose and Sainsbury’s enter the world of eating out with tactical restaurant purchases. Waitrose puts its hat in the ring for middle-class ‘ooh, isn’t it naughty’ burger chain Byron but eventually settles on buying Carluccio’s for an undisclosed sum. Sainsbury’s, meanwhile, goes on an all-out attack on the family-friendly market with its purchase of Wagamama. Aldi shocks the restaurant world by signing a 40-site deal with Burger & Lobster.
3 The first casualties of the pavement-vendor-turned-permanent-operator occur as the realisation kicks in that the appetite isn’t there for certain more specialist cuisines on a day-to-day basis. First to fall is Bangladeshi nacho concept Bangla-Bang, swiftly followed by Tasmanian vegetarian fondue restaurant Dip Down Under.
4 The infatuation with the Edison light bulb becomes passe as restaurants delve further back in time, before the advent of electricity, for their latest lighting muse - and to fend off the July British Gas price hike rise of 38%. Beef tallow candles are in, with the drip-off being used to fry quadruple cooked chips in, as are flaming torches affixed to walls and indoor sparklers.
5 Jamie Oliver dispenses with the Union Jacks brand and turns his focus to building a new chain of Spanish-style rotisserie chicken and chips restaurants with communal-style eating, hearty starters, churros and hot chocolate desserts and Basque cider on tap and in sharing bottles. It reaches 20 sites by December.
Oh, and the cheese toastie is going to be HUGE.
