All Analysts articles – Page 2
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Analysis & InsightPeel Hunt ups target price for M&B after share announcement
Analyst Peel Hunt has increased its target price for Mitchells & Butlers (M&B) from 275 pence per share to 325p and changed its recommendation from Add to Hold.
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OpinionPeel Hunt: JDW may be hit by post pandemic trends
JD Wetherspoon (JDW), and other low-ticket operators, are more likely to be hit post-Covid working patterns, as well as any further downturn in the economy, according to analysts Peel Hunt.
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Analysis & InsightJP Morgan on The Restaurant Group
JP Morgan has downgraded its revenue forecasts for The Restaurant Group (TRG) as the likelihood of significant restrictions continuing past the first quarter of this year increase; but it remains positive about the group’s expansion prospects, particular through Wagamama.
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Analysis & InsightAnalysts’ verdict: Liberum on Marston’s
An offer for Marston’s could come in at above 100p per share, according to analysts Liberum, in a note issued following the news that Platinum Equity Advisors had received an unsolicited non-binding proposal from the American PE firm regarding a possible cash offer for its share capital.
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Analysis & InsightAlixPartners: Gradually building momentum
Just over a month since restart, it is obvious that the sector’s revival will take time, and sadly it will not include everyone.
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Analysis & InsightMorgan Stanley on Mitchells & Butlers
M&B’s pubs are mostly large, branded, food-led, freehold in residential areas, so better able to cope with Covid-19 pressures and take share as supply exits. We want to be positive, but its securitised debt needs the PLC to inject cash to fund it, and it might need to replace PLC debt with equity.
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Analysis & Insight
Berenberg: UK pubs and restaurants guide to reopening
Having been closed for more than three months since the UK went into lockdown on 23 March, the UK’s pubs and restaurants will be allowed to reopen from this Saturday, 4 July. Having spoken to management teams across the sector numerous times over the last 19 weeks, we have pulled together a “cheat sheet” on reopening plans and key points to watch in the months ahead.
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Analysis & Insight
J.P. Morgan on the UK pub sector
Although PM Boris Johnson’s speech on Sunday appeared to create more confusion around broader re-opening plans, hopes have been raised about select openings at some point in July for the broader “hospitality” industry. While we are unsurprisingly left with more questions than answers, we thought a quick piece was merited to highlight our views, recent investor feedback, what we’re watching for re-openings, and some incremental news in the last two weeks.
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Analysis & InsightGoodbody on The Restaurant Group
While Restaurant Group has faced a number of well documented challenges before the advent of the current coronavirus crisis took hold, including the oversupply of branded restaurant chains in the UK, cost inflation, high rents and struggling legacy brands, the closure of the sector for a quarter has presented a ...
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Analysis & InsightAnalysts’ verdict: Berenberg on City Pub Group
Berenberg finds City Pub Group’s fundraise has left the company with a “substantial level of liquidity” and a “best-in-class balance sheet”, which it could deploy on cut-price acquisitions.
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Analysis & InsightAnalysts’ verdict: Goodbody on the leisure shutdown
With the pubs and restaurants now closed the remainder of the leisure sector saw further restrictions last night with collection and delivery now also being impacted.
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Analysis & Insight
Morgan Stanley on M&B
Jamie Rollo of Morgan Stanley gives his verdict on Mitchells & Butlers’ latest update.
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Analysis & Insight
Goodbody on M&B, TRG, Marston’s
Mitchells & Butlers, Restaurant Group and Marston’s all seeing a significant impact from COVID-19
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Analysis & InsightBDO: ‘The contagion into a deep recession will happen very quickly’
Widescale job losses in the restaurant and bar industry will plunge the UK economy into a deep recession, BDO partner Peter Hemington has told MCA.
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Analysis & Insight
Goodbody on Marston’s
Management were quite open at their FY results a few weeks ago that it was disappointed with FY19 trading and would be working hard to remedy it in FY20. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver better YoY growth this Christmas particularly given its comp is easier ...
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Analysis & InsightGoodbody on TRG
Restaurant Group will report a Q4 trading update in late January. At this point last year RTN gave full year LFL’s for the group and total sales. We forecast FY LFL sales growth of -0.8% in the Legacy business with LFL sales growth of 8.8% for Wagamama UK (implying a group FY LFL of just above 2%). As a reminder group LFL growth was +3.7% in the first 34 weeks.
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Analysis & Insight
Goodbody on Coffer Peach
The Coffer Peach data for the key 6 week Christmas trading period was released this morning. Sector like for likes were up 2.5%. Both Pubs and Restaurants saw a good LFL trading performance with restaurants +2.3% and pubs +2.7%. Within this wet led pubs slightly outperformed food led. Total sales growth for the cohort was +5.4%. The tracker added a new data point for bars which saw strong growth of 3.9%. The director of Coffer Corp leisure noted that “there is a post election sense of optimism”.
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Analysis & Insight
Goodbody on Mitchells & Butlers
Like for like sales growth for the first 14 weeks of the year to the 4th of January was +2.6% (versus our H1 expectation of c.2.2%) with food +3.0% and Drink +1.8%. Implies growth of +3.5% in the most recent 7 weeks (Food +4% & Drink +2.7%). Total sales growth for the 14 weeks is +2.6%. The festive period showed good LFL sales growth of +5.6% over the three weeks, with +6.5% growth across the 5 key festive days.
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Analysis & Insight
Goodbody on Domino’s Q4 update
We believe investors will begin to focus more keenly on the health of the core UK and ROI business given DOM’s decision to exit its International markets. For H219 we forecast +3.0% LFL sales growth ex-splits, and +1% incl splits, in the key UK division. At the Q3 stage UK LFL ex-splits was +3.0% (+1.4% incl splits) so we essentially expect a continuation of trends, although we would note the comp is more difficult in Q4 so the group will need a good finish to the year.
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Analysis & InsightJ.P. Morgan Cazenove on Marston’s and M&B
After strong outperformance in 2019, we are moving MARS and MAB to Neutral, from Overweight, as the current share prices have now “caught up” to reflect the fundamentals, in our estimation. MAB’s operational performance inflected during 2019, and MARS largely resolved fears around its leverage and dividend sustainability. In addition, ...