Any thoughts of a swift conclusion to the Iraq war disappeared this week. Confidence in the international travel market took a major hit. In Europe shares in the big hotel chains, Accor, Hilton and Six C, fell heavily on Friday as two major US hotel operators released depressing sales forecasts and predictions about the impact of the new Gulf conflict.
London has already felt the early effects of war nervousness with hotel business down during the pre-war build up in February. Occupancy and average room rates fell 4.3%, and 2% respectively on the same time last year.
So don't go banking on the tourist or international business travel business.
Poor sentiment for the hotel sector is bound to affect share ratings for pub and restaurant companies. The question is how bad an effect will this global phenomenon have on the domestic UK eating and drinking out market, even in an international hub such as London?
The truth is that international tourism to the UK has never really recovered since September 11, and there is evidence to suggest that the impact on the London restaurant and entertainment market has probably been over played.
While some operators have blamed falling tourist numbers for poor results, others such as City Centre and Ask have reported much more resilient business in the capital. The fact is that there is good business to be had for good operators.
Margins are being squeezed as this week's results from Inventive Leisure showed. However, as Wolverhampton & Dudley also demonstrated this week, investment on individual pub improvements will keep like-for-likes in growth.
Local business, as ever, is the key, and the war has yet to force people to stay home.
No-one predicts that this year is going to be easy for the hospitality and leisure sector, and the war will be one of many factors that can depress confidence.
• So what's the latest predictions for Six Continents? The smart money is now on the demerger happening and then the venture capitalists swooping to try to pick up the separate businesses at bargain prices. Tim Clarke's ambition of seeing Mitchells & Butlers emerge as independent stock market quoted company seems an increasingly remote outcome.
• Best joke at last week's Publican Awards came from host Rory Bremner impersonating George Dubya. "The trouble with the Frenach," says the president,"is they don't have a word for entrepreneur."
• Talking of entrepreneurs and the Publican Awards, the unofficial prize for non-executive chairman of the year must go to former Whitbread and Inn Business boss Alan Jackson, who saw two of his current companies Living Ventures and Charles Wells take major awards. Jackson actually didn't witness the prize giving as he was having an early night before a round of institutional meetings next day. Ever the professional investor.
London has already felt the early effects of war nervousness with hotel business down during the pre-war build up in February. Occupancy and average room rates fell 4.3%, and 2% respectively on the same time last year.
So don't go banking on the tourist or international business travel business.
Poor sentiment for the hotel sector is bound to affect share ratings for pub and restaurant companies. The question is how bad an effect will this global phenomenon have on the domestic UK eating and drinking out market, even in an international hub such as London?
The truth is that international tourism to the UK has never really recovered since September 11, and there is evidence to suggest that the impact on the London restaurant and entertainment market has probably been over played.
While some operators have blamed falling tourist numbers for poor results, others such as City Centre and Ask have reported much more resilient business in the capital. The fact is that there is good business to be had for good operators.
Margins are being squeezed as this week's results from Inventive Leisure showed. However, as Wolverhampton & Dudley also demonstrated this week, investment on individual pub improvements will keep like-for-likes in growth.
Local business, as ever, is the key, and the war has yet to force people to stay home.
No-one predicts that this year is going to be easy for the hospitality and leisure sector, and the war will be one of many factors that can depress confidence.
• So what's the latest predictions for Six Continents? The smart money is now on the demerger happening and then the venture capitalists swooping to try to pick up the separate businesses at bargain prices. Tim Clarke's ambition of seeing Mitchells & Butlers emerge as independent stock market quoted company seems an increasingly remote outcome.
• Best joke at last week's Publican Awards came from host Rory Bremner impersonating George Dubya. "The trouble with the Frenach," says the president,"is they don't have a word for entrepreneur."
• Talking of entrepreneurs and the Publican Awards, the unofficial prize for non-executive chairman of the year must go to former Whitbread and Inn Business boss Alan Jackson, who saw two of his current companies Living Ventures and Charles Wells take major awards. Jackson actually didn't witness the prize giving as he was having an early night before a round of institutional meetings next day. Ever the professional investor.
