Up to 4,000 UK jobs could be at risk as a result of a tax on sugary soft drinks, new research suggests.

The report by global forecasting experts Oxford Economics warned that the hospitality sector and small retailers would be ‘predominantly’ affected by the impact of the levy, which would only reduce the average consumer’s daily calorie intake by five calories a day – equivalent to one bite of an apple.

Lower sales, the data found, would reduce the industry’s contribution to the economy by £132m.

Gavin Partington, director general of the British Soft Drinks Association, which commissioned the report, said: “Post-Brexit, securing investment and jobs is more important than ever. This research shows the soft drinks tax is not only ineffective in fighting obesity but will come at a significant price for the economy, costing thousands of jobs.

“As an industry we recognise that obesity must be tackled which is why we have invested heavily in reformulating drinks. Since 2012 this has led to a 16% reduction in sugar intake from soft drinks. The tax is therefore unnecessary and harmful to our economy.”

Nick Stewart, senior economist at Oxford Economics added: “Early indications are that the soft drinks tax will lead to over 4,000 job losses across the UK. The impact will be felt across the wider economy, predominantly in hospitality and smaller retailers. These are significant losses considering we estimate the tax will only lead to a reduction of just 5 calories per person, per day.”