The planned sugar tax could cut obesity among young children by 10% and create “health by stealth”, according to research from Oxford University.
The first ever study examining the likely impact of plans for a levy on sugary drinks suggests it could halt spiralling rates of obesity, diabetes and tooth decay over the past decade.
The study, published in The Lancet, models likely changes in the behaviour of consumers and drinks manufacturers when extra duties are placed on high sugar drinks.
It suggests that efforts by companies to cut sugar content to minimise the extent of the taxes could result in up to 144,000 fewer people with obesity - including 95,000 children.
The greatest impact is expected to be among four to ten year-olds, where drinks are one of the main sources of sugar. The study suggests that here, obesity cases could fall by 10%, with 45,700 fewer cases of obesity expected out of a current total of 465,900.
Researchers said many improvements in health could be made from changes the public would barely notice, if manufacturers took their cue to cut sugar content.
Author Professor Susan Jebb, from Oxford University told the Telegraph: “If you reformulate, it’s health by stealth,” she said. “Everyone benefits without there being any changes in customers’ behaviour at all.”
Researchers modelled different ways that the soft drinks industry might respond to the levy – raising prices, marketing lower sugar drinks or reducing sugar content of drinks.
If measures resulted in a 30% reduction in the sugar content of high-sugar drinks and a 15% reduction for moderately sugary drinks, it could mean 144,000 fewer cases of obesity, the modelling suggests.
It could also mean 19,000 fewer new cases of Type 2 diabetes annually and 269,000 fewer teeth affected by decay each year, the study suggests.
The less tax paid under the scheme, the more successful it would be in improving health, researchers said, as it would mean consumers were eating less sugar.
