More than a quarter of consumers (27%) say ordering home delivery makes them less likely to eat out in a restaurant – rising to 32% for 18-34 year olds, the latest MCA research reveals.
The generational shift in behaviour becomes wider when consumers are asked if they order delivery more often than eating out, with one-fifth of (20%) agreeing - rising to 35% for 18-34s.
As well as eating out, delivery appears to be impacting grocery retail, with 34% saying it makes them less likely to cook at home - rising to 41% among 18-34s.
The research reveals participation is up across all ages, particularly among 18-34s, where participation is 89% - up nine percentage points from 80% in 2017.
Steve Gotham, MCA’s director of insight, said: “It is very difficult to disagree that foodservice delivery is anything other than a disruptive and cannibalising force within both the UK eating out and grocery retail marketplaces.”
The findings are taken from MCA’s UK Foodservice Delivery Market Report, which forecasts the market to grow by 13.4% in 2018 to a total implied spend of £8.1bn.
The analysis finds 851m meals will be ordered in 2018 – up 9.2% year on year.
Gotham said the report showed the market was “firing on all cylinders” with growth in consumer participation, average spend and in order frequency.
“It will come as no surprise that the foodservice delivery market is outperforming the wider eating out market – but the scale of the differential might,” he said.
“At 13%, annual foodservice delivery growth is the hottest component in the market, which in overall terms, is expected to struggle to surpass 2% in 2018.
“Last year, when we first investigated foodservice delivery, we fully expected strong growth to continue in 2018 – but 13% has significantly exceeded our previous forecast.”
Gotham said participation had benefitted from widening availability of delivery services and growing consumer choice, with average spend driven upwards by treat-led and larger, more social group occasions.
“A combination of factors, perhaps allied with Just Eat’s heavy advertising with the X Factor, suggests that this consumption activity is beyond a home meal replacement,” Gotham said.
“It could well be concluded that consumers are looking to create more experiential dining occasions with delivery services at home – potentially meaning more restaurateurs need to raise their games further to retain and develop on premise custom.”
Traditional takeaway options, such as Chinese and Indian, remain most popular - though younger consumers have more varied tastes, and over index for Pan Asian and American cuisine.
Meanwhile, the top 100 casual dining brands increased their delivery availability, from 61% in 2017 to 66% in 2018, driven by fast food outlets and branded restaurants.
Pubs are still lagging behind, with just seven out of 31 leading brands offering a delivery service.
Domino’s remains the delivery company UK consumers are most aware of – though the pizza brand and others such as Pizza Hut Delivery and Papa John’s are losing recognition as delivery platforms gain awareness.
“Looked at by operator, the research highlights growth in order volumes at Just Eat and Deliveroo, whereas the more traditional players, Domino’s, Pizza Hut and Papa John’s, remain under some order share pressure,” Gotham said.
Just Eat is the most well recognised delivery platform in London and the regions - but Deliveroo and Uber Eats increased their recognition by 11.2pp and 23.3pp respectively.
Gotham said the survey highlights further stronger growth for ordering foodservice takeaway over going out to eat in restaurants.
“For restaurateurs there is little option but to embrace the business opportunities - and challenges - that foodservice delivery brings,” he added.
“The shorter term is inevitably going to be influenced by ongoing political and economic uncertainty that will eat away at consumer confidence and subdue higher spending eating out activity.
“In the longer term, the worry is as consumers get older they will retain more of their purchase behaviours from their younger days for longer, and this will also depress eating out activity in the wider market.”
