Cawston's top soft drinks trends

While exploring the trends and emerging trends for the soft drinks market, it is worth noting that it is set within a backdrop of a desire for healthier options and the use of real, good quality ingredients. Effectively consumers want as ‘clean’ a label as possible, driven by an even greater desire to know what they are eating.

People are transferring the ‘DIY’ approach with their Nutribullets and blenders at home to wanting convenient options that are great quality and can be bought and consumed on the go. As part of this movement people are therefore looking for well-made more artisanal soft drinks, with the carbonated part of this market being badged as ‘craft soda’ in the US. Yes, everything has seemingly been gripped by the ‘craft’ phenomena.

There is good reason for this area of the market to be under scrutiny and ripe for some change, with the soft drinks arena huge and long the domain of a few global players. Its importance to the Food to Go market is undeniable - in the convenience channel, soft drinks are twice the size of the next biggest, confectionary. That said the shape of the landscape will undoubtedly change dramatically with the introduction of the soft drinks sugar levy on 6 April 2018. From my perspective It feels as if there will be four clear subsectors that will emerge -sweetened with sugar, naturally sweetened (using fruit juice or honey), sweetened with added sweeteners and unsweetened.

It would take a brave person to predict at this stage how things will settle given the public backlash we have seen already to formulation changes of Iron Bru and Original Lucozade. My personal view is that the brands and the products that are naturally sweetened or are unsweetened will start to rise to the top. The key determinant however will be ‘taste’. It’s a very simple formula - if it tastes good people will come back, if it doesn’t they won’t. It seems fair to say though that there will be a period of settling down as outlets and consumers make their choices and we may well see a changing of the guard.

As I survey the wider market and cast the net further beyond the changes that have and will be implemented as a result of the introduction of the sugar levy, I believe that there are some key things that will continue to grow further and others that will start to emerge.

1. Hot to Cold

Cold brew coffee and cold teas are a staple in the US but have now started to find more of a home in the UK. Cold brew coffee is emerging as a trend once again after being talked about and widely researched online, and is now showing a real desirability as a ready to drink offering in the mid-afternoon or even as a mixer for an evening occasion. The teas however tend to be seen as something that form part of the ritual in the early part of the week, a post weekend cleanse perhaps. I am still yet to be convinced about ice tea and if it will stick alongside carbonated soft drinks for example given the number of attempts that have been made to build that movement in the UK. Perhaps we are still too wedded to a nice hot cuppa, we’ll see.

2. Savoury (and less sweet options)

There is a definite movement towards people looking for drinks with a more savoury profile, it builds upon the desire to have less sugary, less sweet products. Within this space I do feel that this is where a cold tea base could work, Kombucha being a great example, which has the added gut health benefits and the positive links with overall health and wellbeing that will start to attract more people. It is a phenomena in the US that I don’t believe can be ignored.

The subsequent use of ingredients such as turmeric and ginger seemingly goes from strength to strength, and are again often associated with the health benefits that they potentially offer.

3. Meal Replacement

This is not a huge leap forward given the previous point about a savoury taste profile, but there is a continued desire for good quality drinks as a replacement for a meal and a price point to boot. I have seen a lot of blurring of the lines with food and drinks as more and more fortified drinks, protein drinks, nut milks etc are launched or prepared fresh on site (many at a price that would mean they would need to do the job of a meal as well). With the faster pace of life and with more people eating out and often on the run at all times of day, this is something that cannot be overlooked.

4. Water

Packaged water and flavoured waters continue to rise. The winners for me here will be those that find the right format in a market place where people are looking at re-use, re-cycling and a step change reduction in single use plastics for example. In addition to that anyone that can develop the best tasting unsweetened water, be that still or sparkling, will be sure to prosper.

• Based on a combination personal observations of the market in the UK, US and Northern Europe, Pearlfisher Futures work, Google analytics, and market data reports from MCA, IRI, Kantar and Britvic