A drinks analyst has forecast that the sector won’t see any “green shoots” emerge until late 2010, after new figures showed that on-trade volumes fell 9% in the year to July 2009.
Graham Page from Nielsen warned that the on-trade’s position would be exceptionally tough until at least the back end of next year as a result of consumers drinking at home more often and the loss of heavy drinkers who had been hit hardest by the recession.
The latest data showed that independent operators outperformed other outlets, with volumes falling 3% compared to 10% at leased and tenanted pubs and 9% in the managed sector.
Page said that independent operators often had more scope to negotiate deals with suppliers and adapt to market trends than tied licensees.
On-trade sales dropped less steeply by value than by volume, down 5%.
Page said: “The on-trade’s biggest problem is that the consumer has started to drink at home more often than not and it’s lost its core heavy drinkers, because they are those most heavily hit by the recession.
“The working man in the Midlands, the north and Scotland has been especially hit. It’s now percolating to the south and other parts.”
