New research has claimed that government spending cuts and the rise in VAT to 20% will lead to 1.6 million job losses. The figure presented by from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) is far higher than previous estimates. It said the full impact of the government's Spending Review had been "understated" and it would have a greater impact on the private sector than had been previously thought. The government has estimated around 500,000 public sector jobs will go. However, the CIPD said that the private sector would be hit harder than the public sector. An average of 320,000 private sector jobs a year would have to be created by 2015-16 just to keep unemployment steady at 2.5 million, it said. Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said: "The full impact of the coalition government's planned fiscal tightening has been understated "The 490,000 public sector job losses cited in the Spending Review looks like an underestimate, given what most public sector managers are telling [us]." He put the total number of jobs to be lost in the public sector between 2009-10 and 2015-16 at 725,000. The number of jobs lost in the private sector due directly and indirectly from the cuts would be 650,000, with an additional 250,000 jobs to go due to the VAT increase, he added.