The price of a pint of beer at the bar is set to be hard-hit by inflation in the coming months, according to various estimates sector leaders.
JD Wetherspoon announced earlier this month it had already increased its prices by 10p across its venues (20p in London) to counter already rising costs.
Marston’s is due to increase the price of pints in some parts of the country by up to 45p.
Patrick Dardis, chief executive of Young’s, warned of price rises of over 70p a pint by Christmas due to significant increase in grain prices and expected rises in energy bills, which have been impacted by the war in Ukraine
Dardis said: “Just to put it into perspective, if for example the pub companies were to pass on all of the increases that we’ve had in the last six months, the price of a pint would have to rise by about 60 or 70 pence.
“The pub companies and the brewers are actually absorbing a significant amount of the cost pressures already seen.
“I think it may well see, unusually, a second price increase later down the road, in September, October.”
Nik Antona of CAMRA pointed to the “rising energy bills and the cost of goods going up…VAT increases and the end of business rates holidays” as factors which mean that “pub owners are feeling the squeeze from all sides.”
Meanwhile Sacha Lord, the night time economy adviser for Greater Manchester, has forecasted a 16 to 20 pence rise over the next three months as inflation, increased VAT pressures, and surging gas prices hit hospitality operators.
He predicts a pint, which averages £4.07 in the UK, will rise by around four to five per cent, pushing the price to around £4.25.
Lord said: “Our sector looks like it’s back to normal with the naked eye, but behind the scenes, operators are barely breaking even. Many operators will be forced to increase customer prices by around four to five per cent simply to stay afloat and this additional rise will be noticeable to punters.
“Landlords are trying their best in what is a financially precarious situation for many and putting prices up isn’t something they will want to do. I believe most will try to keep price increases lower than the current 6.2% inflation rate to keep customers coming in, and will look to cut costs elsewhere such in their supply chains or even by reducing trading hours and cutting staff hours.”
The forecast comes as VAT costs will rise 60% for pubs, restaurants and bars from Friday 1 April, increasing from its current 12.5% rate to 20%.
According to a poll conducted by trade organisations UKHospitality, the British Institute of Innkeeping (BII), the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) and Hospitality Ulster this March, almost two fifths of operators have already been forced to cut trading hours to combat cost increases across the board.
