Lumina’s newly published Pub & Bar report predicts several ways that it sees the market evolving over the next three years.
Key to growing volumes and transaction value in pubs and bars will be an investment in outdoor space, premium and craft spirits, provenance-led ingredients, a wider food offer and an omni-channel approach. Differentiation in terms of expanding into new dayparts such as mid-afternoon occasions could further play a role in driving trade.
With the lifting of restrictions, experiences are set to play an important role in people’s lives once more. Pub and bar consumers over-index in experience and brand-led values, meaning that operators could emphasise these through hosting events and communicating brand partnerships to boost appeal and increase spend.
Concepts for experience-led pubs will become more specialised and imaginative with concepts revolving around recent and historical pop culture, sports and live music events. In this context, digital will become even more important, and there will be a greater emphasis on food.
In wet-led pubs, craft trends will continue to evolve and there is likely to be an increased emphasis on professionalism and presentation in serving drinks, to create a further point of differentiation to at-home consumption. The movement away from branded outlets is anticipated to continue.
Within food-led pubs, Lumina predicts that pubs will use locally sourced and British produce more, including on-site kitchen gardens to control rising costs and supplier disruption and tap into sustainability and local provenance trends.
Menus are likely to move away somewhat from a traditional ‘pub classics’ focus to embrace a wider mix of trends, in particular more adventurousness, Asian-inspired, modern British, plant-based alternatives and healthier options.
It is predicted that more outdoor space usage will see a rise in pizza ovens, BBQ offerings, street-food inspired dining and out-sourced street food involvement.
The rise of different dayparts – including afternoon tea occasions – could also help drive incremental growth according to Lumina.
Accounting for up to 50% of occasions throughout lockdown, delivery and click & collect had strong uptake from consumers. Lumina’s report suggests that pub and bar operators have the opportunity to capitalise on this service through enhancing takeaway drinks offers with takeaway draught beers and RTD cocktails.
Over a third of consumers would like to keep using digital ordering and payment in pubs, particularly younger consumers.
At least 2 in 5 consumers agree or somewhat agree that mobile apps or QR codes are more convenient, faster than ordering at the bar and limit unnecessary contact with others Digital menus are a key opportunity for pubs to capitalise on upselling opportunities and over half of consumers agree that they find it easier to browse the menu in an app.
Elsewhere in the report, Lumina predicts independent pubs will account for 43.3% of the UK pub market outlets in 2024, up from a 40.5% share in 2018.
Managed, branded and franchised pubs are also forecast to continue to expand share of the pub market by value and outlets, whereas the tenanted and leased pub sector is forecast to decline to 12.2% of turnover share and 27.7% of outlet share by 2024.
Commenting on the results, Senior Insight Manager at Lumina Intelligence, Katherine Prowse, said: “Despite a catastrophic last 18 months, the UK’s love affair with pubs remains intact and will see the market not only fully recover by 2024, but also outpace value growth in the total eating out market.”
“The legacies of the pandemic present significant opportunities to operators and will remain key to market recovery. Delivery accounted for 50% of pub/bar occasions during lockdown and offers operators the chance to broaden its consumer base. The adoption of digital has resulted in a quicker, more seamless customer journey, which many customers are now used to and prefer. As well as offering a better experience, digital ordering and payment gives operators access to valuable data that allows them to understand their customers better.
Find out more about Lumina Intelligence’s UK Pub & Bar Market Report 2021 here.
