Beer is likely to cost more as climate change impacts hop yields, a new study has found.
Experts say British and European drinkers should expect to see the cost of beer increase in the coming years, with agricultural droughts expected to directly impact the amount of hops grown and the quality.
The research “demonstrates a climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of traditional aroma hops across Europe and calls for urgent adaptation measures to stabilise international market chains”.
The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, added “all scenarios predicted a decline in hop yields between 12% and 35% over 2021-2050 across all major hop growing regions in Europe”.
Britain would experience these declines, while the strongest falls in hop production would be felt in Slovenia, Portugal and Spain, the report stated.
Some parts of Europe produce the citrus, floral and fruit aromas which are popular in many beers in the UK.
The authors said farmers will have to find ways “to adapt” to limit the impact of the heating globe on the crops.
The report said: “Since agricultural droughts are projected to increase with high confidence in southern Europe and medium confidence in central Europe, it will be necessary to expand the area of aroma hops by 20% compared to the current production area to compensate for a future decline.”
During the summer, nearly half of the land within the European Union entered “severe” drought, increasing the pressure on food production.
Rising global temperatures and extreme weather events are having a profound impact on hop harvests. In 2022, US production fell by 12%, whilst Germany saw a 21% decline. In the Czech Republic, yields fell by over 40%.
Francois Sonneville, senior analyst at Rabobank, said the conditions needed for hops to thrive meant climate change was a bigger threat to specialised hop growing than barley.
“Barley grows in many places, but the quality will differ a little bit depending on where you grow it,” he told The Grocer. “When you look at hop, it’s much more sensitive to having exactly the right climes.”
