Is it all over for lab-produced meat substitutes? Has the public fallen out of love with fake burgers? Judging by the way shares in Beyond Meat, one of the big names in plant-based protein production, have tumbled of late you might think so.

After a stellar lPO back in 2019, California-based Beyond Meat now finds itself in the unenviable position of being one of the most shorted companies on the US stock market, as investors worry about weakening sales and uncertainty about market forecasts.

Beyond Meat stock is trading just over $66 per share, less than half of what it was at the midpoint last year – and a fraction of the $250 share valuation just after its launch.

The truth is that Beyond Meat’s fall from grace probably says more about stock market hype – and the economics of factory-production – than it does any shift in people’s eating habits. The move to healthier (or at least perceived healthier), more vegetarian and vegan-based diets is real and global – but it may not be moving quite as fast and dramatically as some starry-eyed investors had hoped.

The healthy food debate is also becoming more nuanced, especially in the UK. British farmers, for example, are making a strong case that pasture reared beef is more natural than laboratory-created synthetic ‘meat’ with its long list of added ingredients.

The simple equation that meat is bad and plants are good when it comes to climate change is also being challenged, with a convincing case being made for British livestock creating a much smaller carbon footprint than industrial meat production in other parts of the world.

The whole debate about health, provenance and food production’s green credentials is being opened up – and it’s complex and not made easier this side of the Atlantic by the government’s plans to change the way English agriculture is financed.

How the public engages in that particular conversation and where the weight of opinion ends up will be important in determining longer term eating choices.

So back to Beyond Meat. Despite flattening sales and valuation problems, it is still picking up some juicy deals, not least the US nationwide launch of McDonald’s McPlant burger, which has already launched in the UK and parts of Europe. In the UK, Beyond Meat supplies the likes of Neat Burger, and Honest Burgers, and of course McDonalds. It can’t be written off yet, even if increased competition from newer start-ups is also eating into its market.

There are predictions that the worldwide market for plant-based ‘meat’ will continue to grow by almost 20% a year reaching £13bn in value in four to five years. So, there’s still plenty to go for.

Beware the hype, but also recognise that tastes do change even if not overnight. Perhaps it would be nice to think that what consumers really want in their food is authenticity.

Changing tastes

How eating habits here in Britain have fluctuated since the start of the pandemic, might also give us some clues to how other food trends might stick. Back in 2020 with people in domestic lockdown we were hit by a wave of home bread making. It didn’t last, as latest grocery data show that by the end of last year sales of baking ingredients were back at pre-pandemic levels.

The taste for more interesting breads may have continued, even if people aren’t baking their own. According to Mordor Intelligence, global sales of sourdough, for example, are set to grow at 4.2% a year over the next five years.

But in line with healthier lifestyles, sales of confectionary and sugary drinks have fallen over the past two years, as have sales of cakes, buns and pastries, according to data agency IRI.

Cheese, on the other hand, is among the products that have seen continued growth in British shopping orders whether online or in-store, according to numbers quoted in The Economist.

Kantar research suggests that the changes to domestic eating habits have been largely among the more affluent social groups, who are also the ones that eat out most.

And tastes are improving. When it comes to cheese, not only are we British eating more, but better quality too. So, should we be seeing more cheese boards on pub and restaurant menus, and with better quality options too? Personally, I hope so.