A sure sign that the top end of the London market is hurting came with last week's profit warning from Harvey Nichols. The upmarket department store and restaurant operator reported a severe slump in central London business in the wake of September 11. Like-for-like sales in the first eight weeks of its second half were 8% down on last year.
Sales at the group's flagship Knightsbridge store plummeted 10% over the period, while in contrast sales at its Leeds store increased 20%. Sales at its Prism restaurant also fell 10%, while the Oxo Tower was ahead just 1%,
"It's London that is giving us the pain and in particular Knightsbridge," said the group. Around 13-14% of Knightsbridge expenditure is tourist spend. In September and October tourist spend at Knightsbridge was down by 35%, accounting for about half the total shortfall at the store.
Warnings that things will only get worse have come from Richard Shepherd, owner of the enduringly popular Langan's Brasserie, who is predicting "the most terrible fall-out" once the Christmas rush is over.
Just how bad the January fall-off will be is a concern right across the eating and drinking-out sector, not just the top end.
But the feeling persists that business out-of-London, and untouched by September 11 repercussions, is still holding up remarkably well.
Customers are still spending. That's not just true of the UK, but Europe too û and are borne out by a recent report that the UK's tourist business has been affected more by September 11 than its European counterpoints.
Anecdotal reports from Disneyland Paris, that great melting pot of pan-European entertainment, is that it has not experienced any real guest cancellations since September 11, although its convention trade, especially from the US, has been hit. The Paris park was packed with around 43,000 visitors just this last Saturday.
Getting out of London and into the provinces - and even Europe - looks a good short-term strategy. Of course, that's easier said that done, and how long consumer confidence will keep up there is still anyone's guess.
Sales at the group's flagship Knightsbridge store plummeted 10% over the period, while in contrast sales at its Leeds store increased 20%. Sales at its Prism restaurant also fell 10%, while the Oxo Tower was ahead just 1%,
"It's London that is giving us the pain and in particular Knightsbridge," said the group. Around 13-14% of Knightsbridge expenditure is tourist spend. In September and October tourist spend at Knightsbridge was down by 35%, accounting for about half the total shortfall at the store.
Warnings that things will only get worse have come from Richard Shepherd, owner of the enduringly popular Langan's Brasserie, who is predicting "the most terrible fall-out" once the Christmas rush is over.
Just how bad the January fall-off will be is a concern right across the eating and drinking-out sector, not just the top end.
But the feeling persists that business out-of-London, and untouched by September 11 repercussions, is still holding up remarkably well.
Customers are still spending. That's not just true of the UK, but Europe too û and are borne out by a recent report that the UK's tourist business has been affected more by September 11 than its European counterpoints.
Anecdotal reports from Disneyland Paris, that great melting pot of pan-European entertainment, is that it has not experienced any real guest cancellations since September 11, although its convention trade, especially from the US, has been hit. The Paris park was packed with around 43,000 visitors just this last Saturday.
Getting out of London and into the provinces - and even Europe - looks a good short-term strategy. Of course, that's easier said that done, and how long consumer confidence will keep up there is still anyone's guess.
