The next couple of weeks should give us a pretty accurate snap shot of the health of the UK pub, bar and restaurant sector. Around a dozen companies are reporting results including Wetherspoons, Regent, City Centre, Ask and from the late night arena Springwood and Ultimate.
It should also give us a clue to whether the City is taking a more sympathetic view of the sector.
This last week has seen Greene King and Scottish & Newcastle provide fairly low key trading statements. S&N said like for like retail sales for the year to date had grown by just1% on an uninvested basis led by strong performance from Chef & Brewer and Premier Lodge.
Greene King reported like-for-like sales at its managed pubs grew up only 0.3 percent in the three months May to July, a slowdown on the 0.7 percent growth in sales seen in May and June alone. These may well set the tone for the reporting season.
Despite this, Greene King was actually praised by some City analysts for a "robust" performance after a difficult summer's trading. Yes, praised. Is this the turning point for City sentiment?
The consensus among retailers at the moment is that trading is particularly tough, especially in the high street. The World Cup helped the bar business, but was far from the predicted bonanza. However, no-one is reaching for the razor blades.
There is a confidence that good companies will ride out the downturn, with good operating skills and formats winning through.
That is not to say there will not be casualties - there will. There will also be deals, as we are already seeing with the unfolding Coffee Republic saga and the Jamies Bars sale to Hartford.
But will the City really take long-term confidence in the sector – based on the simple premises that the public may be becoming more choosey, but they are not going to stop going out to eat and drink? Customers just want a good time. It’s a sector that isn’t going away.
However, do retail operators still care what analysts think. One thing is sure the advice from the City will change with the prevailing wind.
How long will it take for the advice to narrow the focus and to specialise on brands be overtaken by the demand for companies to spread bet, have a range of concepts and businesses to minimise their risk?
The next few weeks may tell us.
It should also give us a clue to whether the City is taking a more sympathetic view of the sector.
This last week has seen Greene King and Scottish & Newcastle provide fairly low key trading statements. S&N said like for like retail sales for the year to date had grown by just1% on an uninvested basis led by strong performance from Chef & Brewer and Premier Lodge.
Greene King reported like-for-like sales at its managed pubs grew up only 0.3 percent in the three months May to July, a slowdown on the 0.7 percent growth in sales seen in May and June alone. These may well set the tone for the reporting season.
Despite this, Greene King was actually praised by some City analysts for a "robust" performance after a difficult summer's trading. Yes, praised. Is this the turning point for City sentiment?
The consensus among retailers at the moment is that trading is particularly tough, especially in the high street. The World Cup helped the bar business, but was far from the predicted bonanza. However, no-one is reaching for the razor blades.
There is a confidence that good companies will ride out the downturn, with good operating skills and formats winning through.
That is not to say there will not be casualties - there will. There will also be deals, as we are already seeing with the unfolding Coffee Republic saga and the Jamies Bars sale to Hartford.
But will the City really take long-term confidence in the sector – based on the simple premises that the public may be becoming more choosey, but they are not going to stop going out to eat and drink? Customers just want a good time. It’s a sector that isn’t going away.
However, do retail operators still care what analysts think. One thing is sure the advice from the City will change with the prevailing wind.
How long will it take for the advice to narrow the focus and to specialise on brands be overtaken by the demand for companies to spread bet, have a range of concepts and businesses to minimise their risk?
The next few weeks may tell us.
