Mark Brumby at Langton Capital says that while clothes retailers may have been bleating about it but it’s good to know the Indian summer has been good for somebody; pubs have got another month out of their beer gardens.
What’s happened?
· September was dry and warm
· We’ll be told this evening that October is also the nth driest + warmest on record
· Next, SuperGroup and others would seem to agree
What does it mean?
· What’s bad news for woolly jumper vendors is good news for pubs: The beer garden is the largest room in (or out of) the house. Getting an extra month or two out of it is big news
· Evidence to date: September’s Peach Tracker reported LfL pub/restaurant sales as +2.2%, the 18th consecutive month of growth
Industry beer stats suggest Sept beer sales rose 1.7% in volume terms
This split as to +4.2% on-trade + minus 0.9% for supermarkets
On-trade recorded 3rd best month in 3yrs (beaten by W Cup + warm Easter)
October stats should be similar
Implications, conclusion etc.:
· Every little helps & marginal margins should be 40% plus
· Sales therefore drive profits, autumn has been good to date
· Sector ratings are modest, suggest an overweight
· We prefer SPRT (bid situation), MARS & JDW
· November sees numbers from JDW, PUB, ETI, YNGA, FSTA, MAB and MARS
· GNK (bid situation) reports in December
