Lounges to lead outlet growth

Loungers is forecast to be the standout brand performer in terms of outlet growth within the branded pub & bar restaurant segment according to Lumina Intelligence’s latest ODI (Operator Data Index) analysis. By the end of December 2021, the Lounge brand is expected to have an additional 12 sites open, growing the estate by +8.6% over the year and taking its total number up to 152. These new 12 sites represent half of total expected growth to be seen across the top 5 growing brands.

Also opening sites are Greene King’s Chef & Brewer and Whitbread’s Cookhouse + Pub. Lumina Intelligence is expecting The Chef & Brewer brand to be trading from an additional five sites by December 2021 taking its total estate to 166, while the smaller Cookhouse + Pub concept is forecast to add three more outlets and grow the total number of sites this year to 24. Beefeater and BrewDog make up the other two brands expected to open sites, with each being forecast to open two more sites.

Overall, branded pub and bar restaurant outlet numbers have stabilised since the steep declines of 2018-2019. Lumina Intelligence states that total outlet numbers are just over 3,700. Nonetheless, the segment is expected to experience a further loss of 29 sites in 2021, a decline of -0.8% vs. 2020, as pub groups continue to make disposals and transfer sites into unbranded estates.

Chief among the brands that are currently downsizing according to Lumina’s research is Mitchells & Butlers’ Sizzing Pubs, which is set to see a decline of net -11 sites, or -5%. Meanwhile, Revolution Bars Group-owned, Revolution is set to see the largest percentage decline of -10.2% as the group owner seeks to try out more contemporary concepts.

Harvester, another Mitchells & Butlers brand, is forecast to see site numbers decline by 9, or -5.1% by the end of 2021. The Harvester brand is continuing to be replaced by Miller & Carter, a key growth brand within the Mitchells & Butlers portfolio, with the Miller & Carter brand achieving higher spends through its premium and occasion-led offering.

• To find out more about Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index, click here