Leading sector analyst Geof Collyer has said that there could be some surprises at JD Wetherspoons’ full-year results on Friday given the volatility of the recent trading period. Issuing a Hold recommendation, Collyer, of Deutsche Bank, said: “We have already had the year end pre-close comments on its fourth quarter and full year LFLs and operating margins (which led us to increase by around 2% back in July), but there could be some surprises. “LFL sales for the 50 weeks to 8 July grew +3.0% with Q4 +6.0% (vs. +1.6% in Q411). We have seen several times this year that a wayward two-week trading period can have a disproportionate impact on overall trading so given the volatility of recent weeks, we may see a change in the full year performance to that expected back in July. “As we wrote in our recent sector note: ‘Given the relative lack of growth at the group – one of the reasons why the estate plans have been slowed – the net free cash flow is now positive, providing more scope to reward shareholders.’ So an increase in the final DIV would be a good indicator of the reduced rollout going forward and more cash coming back to shareholders.” He added: “After seeing H1 margins down 12 bps, we forecast H2 margins will be down over -100 bps. However, the full benefit of last year’s £32.8m share buybacks last year along with the £22.7m spent this year this should mean that there is modest H2 EPS growth, despite 7% higher H2 interest costs.” Collyer said he expected full-year like-for-like growth in 2013 slow down its four years average level of +1.5% (with a +3.5% increase in the estate of 25 sites). “We would be looking for management’s statement on the impact of Olympics and weather on the current trading,” he added.