How's the doom and gloom barometer looking this week? Brighter is the obvious answer.
Good news at the start of this week comes from Ernst & Young's influential Item Club which is predicting that the UK economy will escape recession thanks largely to continuing strong consumer spending, though it warns that unemployment is set to rise.
The Item Club's quarterly report, which uses the Treasury's model for growth, predicts growth of 2.2% in the economy this year, easing back to 2% in 2002, before accelerating to 2.9% in 2003.
It warns, however, that the housing market, consumer confidence and high street sales will come still under pressure because of corporate cutbacks. Profitability will be hit by a strong pound.
A fuller report will be given to the UK's restaurant and licensed retail industry by Item Club member Adrian Cooper at this week's Restaurant 2001 conference in London on Thursday and Friday. (Call Mark Walford at Martin Information on 020 8240 4479 for details).
This underlying economic view is generally echoed out in the UK eating and drinking-out market û though with some exceptions. Predictions and pronouncements coming from within the sector also have to be taken with a sprinkling of anti-spin scepticism.
For instance, the UK's two biggest leased pub players Nomura's Guy Hands and Punch's Hugh Osmond took different positions this last week. Hands expects the pub sector revenues to be down between 2% and 3% next year, while Osmond believes retail pub sales will increase in line with disposable personal expenditure, which has been climbing at between 2% and 4%.
Osmond's bullishness may be down to the fact that he wants to float both sides of his Punch business next year, while Hands' cautious-ness could be down to the fact that hois pub estates are lacking leadership with chief lieutenant Giles Thorley jumping ship[ to join Osmond.
Hands may also be influenced by the performance of one of his more recent acquisition's the Meridien Hotel group, which is one being badly hit by the disappearance of the US dollar from international markets.
The greatest level of pessimism is coming from the top-end, international hotel arena and the financial community, where redundancies and corporate clamp-downs now seem the order of the day. Those businesses hurting most are those normally dependant on the dollar û it is almost as simple as that. British Airways said at the weekend that trans-Atlantic air traffic was down 30%.
But even in the hotel market pain is not universal. For example, Scottish & Newcastle's Premier Lodge budget chain has reported increases in occupancy levels across the UK in the weeks since September 11. If this is typical of the lodge market overall, it is logical to expect good business in the accompanying Chef & Brewers, Harvesters, Beefeaters and even Little Chefs that sit side-by-side on site.
And as we suggested last week, the deals market is also showing signs of its old robustness, with this week Robert Breare's Noble House being linked to both Eldridge Pope and Whitbread's Dragon Inns chain.
The old business adage is "think global, act local". For the foreseeable future that may become "think and act local", as the UK may be about the safest place to do business in the coming year.
Good news at the start of this week comes from Ernst & Young's influential Item Club which is predicting that the UK economy will escape recession thanks largely to continuing strong consumer spending, though it warns that unemployment is set to rise.
The Item Club's quarterly report, which uses the Treasury's model for growth, predicts growth of 2.2% in the economy this year, easing back to 2% in 2002, before accelerating to 2.9% in 2003.
It warns, however, that the housing market, consumer confidence and high street sales will come still under pressure because of corporate cutbacks. Profitability will be hit by a strong pound.
A fuller report will be given to the UK's restaurant and licensed retail industry by Item Club member Adrian Cooper at this week's Restaurant 2001 conference in London on Thursday and Friday. (Call Mark Walford at Martin Information on 020 8240 4479 for details).
This underlying economic view is generally echoed out in the UK eating and drinking-out market û though with some exceptions. Predictions and pronouncements coming from within the sector also have to be taken with a sprinkling of anti-spin scepticism.
For instance, the UK's two biggest leased pub players Nomura's Guy Hands and Punch's Hugh Osmond took different positions this last week. Hands expects the pub sector revenues to be down between 2% and 3% next year, while Osmond believes retail pub sales will increase in line with disposable personal expenditure, which has been climbing at between 2% and 4%.
Osmond's bullishness may be down to the fact that he wants to float both sides of his Punch business next year, while Hands' cautious-ness could be down to the fact that hois pub estates are lacking leadership with chief lieutenant Giles Thorley jumping ship[ to join Osmond.
Hands may also be influenced by the performance of one of his more recent acquisition's the Meridien Hotel group, which is one being badly hit by the disappearance of the US dollar from international markets.
The greatest level of pessimism is coming from the top-end, international hotel arena and the financial community, where redundancies and corporate clamp-downs now seem the order of the day. Those businesses hurting most are those normally dependant on the dollar û it is almost as simple as that. British Airways said at the weekend that trans-Atlantic air traffic was down 30%.
But even in the hotel market pain is not universal. For example, Scottish & Newcastle's Premier Lodge budget chain has reported increases in occupancy levels across the UK in the weeks since September 11. If this is typical of the lodge market overall, it is logical to expect good business in the accompanying Chef & Brewers, Harvesters, Beefeaters and even Little Chefs that sit side-by-side on site.
And as we suggested last week, the deals market is also showing signs of its old robustness, with this week Robert Breare's Noble House being linked to both Eldridge Pope and Whitbread's Dragon Inns chain.
The old business adage is "think global, act local". For the foreseeable future that may become "think and act local", as the UK may be about the safest place to do business in the coming year.
