Enterprise: Tuppen plans the long goodbye

It seems to be all change at the top of the leisure and brewing sector at the moment. Hardly a week seems to go by without a chief executive handing in their notice or a replacement being announced after the resultant recruitment process has been completed. Richard Glynn from Sporting Index has taken the reins from Chris Bell at Ladbrokes; Andy Harrison from easyJet has been chosen to replace Alan Parker in the pilot’s seat at Whitbread; and Ian Dyson from Marks & Spencer has hoovered up the top job at Punch Taverns to be vacated imminently by Giles Thorley. And this morning it was announced that Guy Parsons will move up at Travelodge to replace Grant Hearn as CEO. The big question is: who’s next? Well, if my name was Paddy Power I’d now be getting my chalkboard out to quote you some odds. I’d have probably have Simon Emeny at 3-1 to succeed Michael Turner as chief executive of Fuller, Smith & Turner (though not being called Fuller, Smith or Turner might militate against him); at 2-1 I’d have Alistair Darby to step into Ralph Findlay’s shoes at Marston’s; then at evens I’d have Alan Clark to be promoted at SABMiller when Graham Mackay eventually decides he want to retire. But forget all of those. Honest Dom’s odds-on tip for the top is Simon Townsend, the self-effacing but highly regarded chief operating officer of Enterprise Inns. My bet is that Townsend’s time could soon be coming as Ted Tuppen, who founded the company almost 20 years ago to cash in on the conflagration of the pub industry (otherwise known as the Beer Orders), prepares to move up to chairman, leaving his anointed successor to step up to the plate. So what will be the trigger for this landmark event? Well, I reckon Tuppen will start to consider his position in earnest once he’s got the looming £1bn debt refinancing out of the way. Although he has long been telling anyone who would listen that, notwithstanding the tenanted and leased sector’s well-documented woes, the refinancing would be done by the end of the group’s September year-end, investors will nevertheless be relieved the outstanding £600m or so left on the facility has been sorted without recourse to an equity issue. I understand that the majority of the 13 members of the banking consortium, which includes the likes of Barclays, Lloyds and HSBC, have opted to remain as lenders, after agreeing to extend the loan well beyond the current May 2011 maturity in return for receiving a higher rate of interest. My sources tell me that if the deal isn’t announced with tomorrow’s interim results, it will be very shortly afterwards. Some City sources reckon Tuppen could announce the succession pretty much right after the refinancing, deeming it as a symbolic acknowledgement that the embattled company will once be again on a sound footing after the most turbulent period in its history. But my hunch is that the veteran pub boss will want to see more tangible evidence of a trading recovery before he allows himself to be kicked upstairs, suggesting that it could be 12-18 months before the transfer of power takes place. He will also want to push on a bit further with cutting the group’s £3.5bn of debt through disposals. The group is about half way through the sale and leaseback of at least 100 prime London pubs for up to £200m. At the same time it is showing good progress in offloading the bottom 400-500 pubs from its 7,100-strong estate, a process that will reap Tuppen another £150m or so with which to pay down the Enterprise debt burden. Times have been tough for the car racing enthusiast over the past three years, but with financial stability about to be achieved, and trading stability slowly but surely hoving into view, he may decided the time is approaching for him to take his foot off the pedal. Ladies and Gentlemen, place your bets. Dominic Walsh is leisure industries correspondent at The Times newspaper