A positive spin on a possible pandemic

As medical experts try to assess the likelihood of the first flu pandemic in this country for 40 years, some analysts have suggested a positive outcome for Britain – and the leisure sector – this summer. While some elements of the health profession maintained this weekend that a full-blown outbreak was inevitable in the UK, the view that the current human strain of the Swine Flu virus emerging from Mexico could be contained, and Britain shielded, seemed to be gaining traction. According to latest reports, there have so far been 27 confirmed cases in the UK, with a further 331 suspected. To put this in context, the World Health Organisation says 21 countries have reported 1,085 cases combined of the infection. Mexico has the lion’s share, with 590 lab-confirmed cases and 25 deaths; the US 286 reported cases and one death. Canada has 101 confirmed cases with no deaths. Across Europe, Spain has 40 confirmed cases, while other countries have confirmed a total of 16 cases. Clearly a scenario of widespread contamination among the general population would have a significant impact on Britain’s economy and the leisure industry: a key strand of the health strategy to deal with the disease would be to prevent people gathering in public places. However, given the mild form the infection seems to be taking outside of America coupled with the fact that Britain is heading into summer – which normally helps suppress such flu viruses – a sense of panic as given way to a suspicion that this will more probably all blow over. Greg Feehely, head of research at Altium, said: “In economic terms this could not have come at a worst time than in the midst of a global economic recession, but we are still dealing with hundreds of cases rather than thousands, and medical opinion is divided. “However, if it does not take off fully in this country, then the domestic economy should benefit enormously. People will be reluctant to travel, and with more people already holidaying at home because of the recession and exchange rates, this could be a real fillip. “Combined with fair weather, the pub and restaurant market may get its first decent summer for three years.” When mentioning the word “summer” in the context of this industry it always pays to be cautious, but it seems that the streets and social gathering places of Britain may not be deserted after all in the milder months of 2009. Good news is always welcome, especially for the pub industry, however unlikely the source.