Whitbread is expected to report strong growth across its Costa Coffee and pub restaurants estates, but a deceleration in Premier Inn when it reports its Q4 update at the end of this month, according to a leading analyst. Jamie Rollo at Morgan Stanley said that RevPAR growth in the UK over the last few months had been weak and a deceleration in Premier Inn growth” is widely expected” and forecast 0% RevPAR for FY13. He said: “As for Costa and Restaurants, it seems that ‘cheap treats’ are in favour, with most companies in the UK eating out market reporting strong like-for-like sales over the last few months, also aided by the poor weather last year.” Rollo forecasts like-for-like sales at Costa to be up by 3% in Q4, a slowdown from the Q3 like-for-like sales of +3.8% and +6.7% in H1. He said: “Starbucks reported some of its ‘busiest trading ever in December’, which is encouraging, although Costa like-for-likes have been volatile and we find it hard to forecast. The company had opened 277 stores to Q3, and will probably exceed its 300 target for the year. Our FY13 forecast assumes like-for-like sales growth of 2%, with every 1% on sales c. £3m to EBIT.” Across Whitbread’s Brewers Fayre and Beefeater estate, Rollo said he expected like-for-like sales of +2%, an improvement from +1% in Q3 and -1% in H1. He said: “Trading has been strong for the managed pub companies over the last couple of months with Marston’s reporting like-for-likes of +7% (8w to 21 Jan), Greene King +8% (7w to 15 Jan), JDW +3.6% (12w to 15 Jan) and MAB +6.5% (9w to 21 Jan). “While WTB’s Restaurant division has been underperforming other pub companies over the last year, we think our +2% estimate might prove conservative given new management, menus and price points seem to have turned the corner for the business. For FY13 we forecast +1% L4L growth, and every 1% is c.£3m to EBIT.”