A 3.5% increase in like-for-like sales in London in November, against the same period last year when trading was impacted by public nervousness in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, helped to drive like-for-like sales up 1.1% across the managed pub and restaurant sector last month, according to the latest Coffer Peach Business Tracker.
“London saw like-for-likes fall 1.5% last November and that had a knock-on effect on national figures which were down 0.2% on 2014,” said Peter Martin, vice president of CGA Peach, which produces the Tracker, in partnership with Coffer Group and RSM. “So although this November’s overall trading increase is to be welcomed, it has to be put in context. Outside of London, groups recorded collective like-for-likes up just 0.3%, which might be a more accurate reflection of the essentially flat nature of the eating and drinking out market post Brexit vote.”
Pub groups had the best of trading last month, with collective like-for-like sales up 1.7%, and with drink-led pubs and bars performing better than food-led. Branded restaurant chains were up just 0.2% nationally on November last year.
“These latest numbers come on the back of three consecutive months of sales growth in the sector in July, August and September following the EU-referendum, but a 1% decline in October, so operators need to remain cautious with plenty of volatility, uncertainty and competition ahead,” Martin said. “Confidence in the market is slowly returning after the Brexit vote, although as our latest CGA poll of senior executives shows, longer term optimism for the coming 12 months, at 36%, is lower than confidence for the immediate six months ahead, at 50%,” he observed.
Total sales growth in November, reflecting the impact of new openings, was 4.1% among the 34 companies, which take part in the Tracker.
The underlying annual sales trend shows sector like-for-like sales running at 0.7% ahead for the 12 months to the end of November, essentially in-line with previous months.
“Trading for eating and drinking out operators in November was up on a soft period the previous year. Many operators are cautiously optimistic about Christmas but more nervous about 2017. With pressure on many costs including wages, food and other commodity costs as well as rent and rates increases, operators need stronger growth to stand still. 2017 could be a year that many simply batten down the hatches, but there are still some excellent schemes and opportunities for expanding F&B concepts in the right locations,” said Mark Sheehan, managing director at Coffer Corporate Leisure.
