Wyn Ellis at Numis has said he expects a positive pre-close statement from Whitbread on Wednesday 25 February.
He said Whitbread’s Q3 trading update on 11 December had been strong with total sales growth in Q3 of 13.2% and LFL sales growth of 6% (Premier Inn +8.5%, Restaurants +1.6% and Costa +5.2%).
However, management warned at the time that it remained “confident of delivering full year results in line with expectations, mindful that the fourth quarter last year was particularly strong, boosted by the absence of snow.”
Ellis said: “Nonetheless, we expect a positive full year pre-close statement given a more buoyant consumer environment in the UK, continued strength in the UK hotel market and another mild winter. We believe that the risk to forecasts is on the upside.
He added: “Restaurants performed relatively well in Q3, with LFL sales growth of 1.6% but we forecast a more buoyant Q4 with LFL growth of 2%.
“Costa had a strong Q3 with total sales growth of 17% and LFL sales growth of 5.2%. We, cautiously, forecast 4% LFL growth in Q4.
“Premier Inn grew total sales by 15.4% and like for like sales by 8.5% in Q3. There was a 6.2% increase in UK rooms and an 8.6% growth in RevPAR (occupancy up 2.6ppts to 84.8%). In the regions total RevPAR grew by 9.3%. In London total RevPAR grew by 2% as Premier Inn expanded rapidly (London rooms increased 14.8%, sales +17.2%). For Q4 we forecast LFL growth of 4.8%.
“Last month Whitbread hosted an analysts’ visit to “Hub by Premier Inn” which is an important part of Premier Inn’s future hotel growth strategy. Hub is expected to contribute 3,000 rooms to Premier Inn’s planned total of 75,000 by 2018. Initial trading at the St. Martin’s Lane “Hub” has been encouraging and we believe that Whitbread may have hit upon another winning formula.”
