Leading analyst Mark Brumby at Langton Capital says that Black Friday and Cyber Monday have grabbed the headlines but have they simply influenced the timing of spending rather than its volume?
What’s happened?
· Black Friday & Cyber Monday (US imports) got more column inches this year than previously
· They may have influenced the timing of some Xmas (present) spending but not the volume
· More fundamentally for pubs/restaurants, the weather has been, and is forecast to be, benign
What does this mean?
· Some consumers may have done their shopping earlier
· But this does not necessarily mean they have pre-spent more than in prior years; granny’s still only getting the one scarf
· There should still be plenty left to spend in the pub/restaurant
· Indeed, consumers may have bagged ‘bargains’ & thus have more left for ‘affordable treats’
· The weather remains a bigger influence on leisure spending & here there is no snow forecast
Implications, conclusion etc.:
· The economy is (somewhat) better than it was last year, real wages are growing, petrol prices are falling & the supermarkets are cutting prices
· Consumer could and should have more money available to spend - Black Friday etc. are just background noise
· Fingers crossed & keep an eye on the weather forecast.
