The branded restaurant segment is forecast to see encouraging turnover growth of +9.1%, according to Lumina Intelligence.
The category is expected to total 99.7% of its 2019 value in 2023, however, the independent restaurant segment is expected to see the slowest recovery post covid, totalling £11.6bn in 2023.
The top 10 branded restaurants by turnover are expected to grow +6.9% in 2023, driven by premium operators including The Ivy, Côte and Miller & Carter.
Italian casual dining restaurants including Prezzo, Pizza Express and Pizza Hut, continue to see declines as volatile consumer confidence impacts negatively on consumers’ appetite for discretionary spend.
Leading branded restaurants are forecast to see a combined outlet decline of -2.6% in 2023 driven by a drop in mid- market casual dining chains.
Nando’s has seen +1.7% outlet growth between December 2022 and December 2023, whereas PizzaExpress saw a -2.4% decline in outlets over the same period
The Restaurant group’s Wagamama on the other hand saw outlets increase +4.6% year- on year.
The top 10 branded restaurants by turnover are expected to see sales growth of +6.9% from 2022 in 2023 driven by inflation and dish price increases.
Lumina notes that premium brands are achieving growth with consumers increasingly opting for experience-led quality dining whilst casual dining brands are struggling to recover post-pandemic because of rising labour costs, business rates and debt.
Between December 2019 and December 2023, Prezzo saw sales drop -21.67, whilst The Ivy Grills & Brasseries saw growth of +46.6%.
The Ivy Collection has recently launched the Ivy Premier Rewards App, allowing guests to earn points when they dine in a branded venue.
Miller & Carter also saw sales increases during the period, of +21.6%.
