The UK restaurant market is forecast to value £18.1bn in 2023, with the leading brands set to see an end to outlet decline, according to Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index Quarterly Download.
The market is forecast to recover to 94% of its 2019 value in 2023, with branded restaurants driving growth and independent outlets expected to decline due to rising operating costs and inflation.
The branded restaurant segment is forecast to see strong turnover growth of +8.3% to be worth £6.1bn in 2023, with the segment expected to recover 99% of its 2019 value in 2023 – still 500 fewer sites then pre-pandemic.
The top 10 branded restaurants by turnover are expected to value £2.9bn in 2023, +2.1% ahead of 2019.
This is +43.1% ahead of 2022, an additional £264m year on year.
The Ivy Collection is expected to see the strongest growth in 2023 in the top 10, underpinned by continued physical expansion and a focus on occasion-led dining.
The top 10 branded restaurants by outlets are expected to see a combined outlet rise of +0.1% in 2023, an improvement from losses of 0.8% in 2022.
Leading brands including Nando’s, Wagamama and Miller & Carter will continue to add sites to estates, offering consumers quality and consistency at an affordable price point.
Wagamama is expected to lead outlet growth in the top 10, as it continues to capitalise on interest for pan Asian cuisine.
The top 10 fastest growing branded restaurants are forecast to add a combined total of +63 net sites in 2023.
The independent restaurant segment is expected to total £11.1bn in 2023, around 91% of its 2019 value.
Rising energy prices and business costs are expected to weaken growth in the independent segment with an expected outlet decline of 2.0% in 2023.
- · The Operator Data Index Quarterly Download Q1 2023 Report has been uploaded to the website. To find out more click here
