Rotisseries are the future of the pub sector, according to Michelin-starred chef Tom Kerridge; while leading analyst Simon French suggests larger pub companies could emerge fuelled by the market rent-only option (MRO). Either way, 2015 could play a significant role – arguably as significant as 2007 and the introduction of the smoking ban – in shaping how the UK’s pub landscape will look for years to come.
Next week, Kerridge will tell delegates at our Future Pub Conference (see details below) his thoughts on the future direction of the UK’s pubs and in particular their food offer. The initial success of the his new site – the Coach in Marlow – a more accessible brother to his nearby award-winning Hand & Flowers – has bolstered his opinion that rotisseries could be in “every high street pub within five years”.
The Coach, which is an Enterprise lease with 10 years remaining, has a big focus on rotisserie cooking, with the unit taking a small footprint in the 40-cover site. Kerridge says: “Rotisseries are a big feature and will be used for breakfast, lunch and dinner. So I suppose the Coach is basically a Wetherspoon, but with a rotisserie. We are doing a whole side of honey-glazed smoked bacon and are cooking sausages on there for breakfast. Moving into lunch, we will be cooking big joints of meat on it and stuffed quail — cooked to order.
“We are also cooking whole vegetables on it, such as whole roasted celeriac and trays of pomme boulangère, which will collect all the nice juices from the meat. The opportunity is there for more pubs to do something similar and produce food of a good standard for relatively little footprint or cost.”
Kerridge believes pub companies such as Greene King and Enterprise Inns understand the industry is changing and are looking to adapt with it. That adaption will become more fast-paced as clarity on MRO is achieved.
Leading leisure analyst French of Cenkos has predicted the evolved pubs code will result in the formation of one or two large property companies with 10,000-plus pubs each. He says: “One of the consequences of the MRO option is we might start to see some real scale coming back into the sector. I think one of the things we’ll see is one or two very big pub-owning property companies, maybe 10,000-plus pubs each. It will be a pure property business, and it will be about putting more assets into that business to sweat the business model a bit harder.”
He adds MRO will also lead to “a number of smaller tenanted and leased companies with fewer than 100 pubs”.
He believes the biggest threats facing the pub sector at the moment are “the 3 Ss – supermarkets, sofas and social media”. However, he said the UK consumer “is in very good shape” and the two main trends going forward are trading-up and micropubs.
Regarding the Greene King-Spirit deal, which is due to complete by the middle of the year, French expects to see “a competitive response from others in the market”. “I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw other companies looking to merge in the next 12 to 18 months. I think Marston’s, for example, finds itself in an interesting position. Stonegate will come back to market and may want to do more deals.”
All this leads to a sector more fast-moving and energetic than ever before. As Ralph Findlay, chief executive of Marston’s, points out: “We seem to have emerged from the smoking ban and, fingers crossed, the economic recession, with a renewed sense of vigour.”
You can hear more on Kerridge’s views on the future of UK pubs, plus exclusive content from the likes of Punch Taverns, Marston’s and Oxford University on the evolution of the pub industry, at this year’s Future Pub Conference, which takes place on 24 February at the May Fair Hotel, London. For details email teresa.norman@wrbm.com or call 01293 846521.
