The UK eating & drinking out market has lost £1.4bn in value as a result of the Brexit vote, according to economic estimates by MCA.

This equates to a contraction of 1.9%, with a drop in eating out frequency driven by low consumer confidence a key reason for this.

A no deal Brexit is expected to have an even more detrimental impact, cutting at least £3.4bn off the forecasted value of the eating out market in the best case scenario, rising to £5.4bn in the worst case of a disorderly no deal Brexit.

Daljit Johal, the data scientist at MCA who conducted the research, said: “It is clear that Brexit has already had a detrimental impact on the UK eating out market, however our forecasts predict even bigger problems if the UK leave the European Union without a deal. A no deal Brexit will reduce UK GDP by between 4.75% to 7.5% and slash up to £5.4bn off the forecasted value of the UK eating out market in 2020.

“A no deal Brexit will have clear implications on consumer confidence and spend. Rising inflation as a result of increased input prices will squeeze household incomes at a time when consumers are limiting discretionary spend. Saving is currently at a record low, however we expect this to change as precautionary consumers save due to economic uncertainty.”

The forecast was calculated using the ‘synthetic control method’, a statistical technique which uses a machine learning algorithm, with analysis of MCA’s Operator Data Index.