A leading analyst has said that the full-year results from Enterprise Inns, which are due on Tuesday next week, should emphasise a "stabilisation" in trading within the group’s substantive estate during the second half. However, after disposal activity and sharp declines in the non-substantive estate, Douglas Jack at Numis Securities is forecasting prê-tax profit to be down 8% to £161m (Consensus £159m). He said: “The key to creating equity value is paying down debt more quickly than Ebitda falls; unfortunately, without bond repurchases, we do not forecast this to happen until 2013E.” Jack said that like-for-like rent should be outperforming like-for-like beer, boosted by RPI (averaging 5%) as 61% of pubs are on index-linked rents. He said that bank debt is forecast to have fallen by over £200m to c.£460m, aided by disposals and sale & leasebacks. He said: “The bank facility expires in December 2013; the company should prioritise minimising the required new facility (at c.£250m) knowing that it should have to provide c.£20m pa of financial support to the Unique bonds from 2014E. “In 2012E, we expect both Ebitda and debt to fall by 4%, implying no equity upside over 12 months if the company holds its 8.4x EV/Ebitda rating. On this basis, there should be 40% equity upside in 2013E if Ebitda stabilises as forecast. In our view, short-term upside requires a re-rating based on either political interference diminishing or LFL profit starts to improve.”