The National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) has warned that the recovery will be “the weakest of any since the First World War”, after its first estimate for GDP growth in September suggested that the economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter. The previous nine months covering the period from 1st October 2010 to June 30th 2011 saw the economy stay flat. It said that this means the economy has grown by just 0.5% in the past 12 months. The NIESR warned that GDP is still 4% below its pre-recession peak, which means the recovery will be the weakest of any since the First World War and said that although the UK is likely to have departed the recession, we are in a depression. It said: “The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time.”