Analysis

  • Domino's
    News

    Analysts’ verdict: Goodbody on the leisure shutdown

    2020-03-25T08:37:00Z

    With the pubs and restaurants now closed the remainder of the leisure sector saw further restrictions last night with collection and delivery now also being impacted.

  • News

    Goodbody on M&B, TRG, Marston’s

    2020-03-19T08:31:00Z

    Mitchells & Butlers, Restaurant Group and Marston’s all seeing a significant impact from COVID-19

  • News

    Morgan Stanley on M&B

    2020-03-19T08:31:00Z

    Jamie Rollo of Morgan Stanley gives his verdict on Mitchells & Butlers’ latest update. 

  • GettyImages-1149890156
    News

    BDO: ‘The contagion into a deep recession will happen very quickly’

    2020-03-19T08:30:00Z

    Widescale job losses in the restaurant and bar industry will plunge the UK economy into a deep recession, BDO partner Peter Hemington has told MCA.

  • TRG Logo
    News

    Goodbody on TRG

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    Restaurant Group will report a Q4 trading update in late January. At this point last year RTN gave full year LFL’s for the group and total sales. We forecast FY LFL sales growth of -0.8% in the Legacy business with LFL sales growth of 8.8% for Wagamama UK (implying a group FY LFL of just above 2%). As a reminder group LFL growth was +3.7% in the first 34 weeks.

  • News

    Goodbody on Marston’s

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    Management were quite open at their FY results a few weeks ago that it was disappointed with FY19 trading and would be working hard to remedy it in FY20. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver better YoY growth this Christmas particularly given its comp is easier ...

  • News

    Goodbody on Coffer Peach

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    The Coffer Peach data for the key 6 week Christmas trading period was released this morning. Sector like for likes were up 2.5%. Both Pubs and Restaurants saw a good LFL trading performance with restaurants +2.3% and pubs +2.7%. Within this wet led pubs slightly outperformed food led. Total sales growth for the cohort was +5.4%. The tracker added a new data point for bars which saw strong growth of 3.9%. The director of Coffer Corp leisure noted that “there is a post election sense of optimism”. 

  • News

    Goodbody on Mitchells & Butlers

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    Like for like sales growth for the first 14 weeks of the year to the 4th of January was +2.6% (versus our H1 expectation of c.2.2%) with food +3.0% and Drink +1.8%. Implies growth of +3.5% in the most recent 7 weeks (Food +4% & Drink +2.7%). Total sales growth for the 14 weeks is +2.6%. The festive period showed good LFL sales growth of +5.6% over the three weeks, with +6.5% growth across the 5 key festive days.

  • News

    Goodbody on Domino’s Q4 update

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    We believe investors will begin to focus more keenly on the health of the core UK and ROI business given DOM’s decision to exit its International markets. For H219 we forecast +3.0% LFL sales growth ex-splits, and +1% incl splits, in the key UK division. At the Q3 stage UK LFL ex-splits was +3.0% (+1.4% incl splits) so we essentially expect a continuation of trends, although we would note the comp is more difficult in Q4 so the group will need a good finish to the year.

  • MARSTONS_Day_2_Jan_2019-1662_300dpi_CMYK
    News

    J.P. Morgan Cazenove on Marston’s and M&B

    2020-01-13T08:28:00Z

    After strong outperformance in 2019, we are moving MARS and MAB to Neutral, from Overweight, as the current share prices have now “caught up” to reflect the fundamentals, in our estimation. MAB’s operational performance inflected during 2019, and MARS largely resolved fears around its leverage and dividend sustainability. In addition, ...

  • City Pub Co
    News

    Berenberg on City Pub Group

    2020-01-13T08:27:00Z

    This morning, The City Pub Group (CPC) released a full-year trading update, noting that due to a series of largely one-off issues, 2019 earnings are expected to be modestly below prior expectations. While we only reduce our 2019 sales numbers by c1%, the impact of operational gearing means that our 2019 EPS forecasts come down by c12%. The impact on outer years is far more modest and we continue to believe in CPC’s expansion plans – so while we reduce our price target to 220p, we maintain our Buy rating.

  • Beefeater interior
    News

    Goodbody on Whitbread

    2020-01-13T08:21:00Z

    Whitbread - Thoughts into Q3 update, any confirmation of improving trends important

  • Mitchells and Buttler Logo
    News

    J.P. Morgan and Goodbody on Mitchells & Butlers

    2020-01-10T08:34:00Z

    Robust Q120 LFL represents comparison-adjusted acceleration

  • News

    Jamie Rollo on pubs under the new Government

    2019-12-13T08:12:00Z

    UK pubs have been relatively resilient over the past few years, with industry LfL sales running up around 1%. 

  • Just Eat 2
    News

    Goodbody on Coffer Peach and 2020; Peel Hunt on Just Eat

    2019-12-10T08:45:00Z

    Goodbody says the UK restaurant sector is still facing the dual headwinds of chronic oversupply and cost inflation, while Peel Hunt say Prosus’ latest offer for Just Eat ”significantly increases deal certainty”. 

  • GettyImages-1153667868
    Opinion

    2019 – a year of rising input prices for food and drink

    2019-12-05T08:22:00Z

    Prestige Purchasing’s chairman David Read looks back on an expensive year for operators, and discusses the outlook for food and drink costs in 2020.

  • Cote exterior
    Opinion

    Focus on: French casual dining chains

    2019-12-04T08:25:00Z

    For a country associated with such a long established and fine cuisine tradition, it might be considered a little surprising that French food does not have a stronger restaurant chain presence in the UK, but perhaps the two elements of individual flair and multi-site brand consistency are indeed, polemically opposed.

  • GettyImages-fish and chips
    News

    Spend up at dinner despite visit challenge for pubs

    2019-11-27T08:32:00Z

    Average spend at pubs during the dinner occasion has seen a strong increase, despite the challenge for operators to grow share of visits at this day-part, according to MCA’s latest Pub Brand Monitor.

  • GettyImages-508263822
    Opinion

    Wet-led pubs best placed to capitalise on demand for experiences

    2019-11-13T07:57:00Z

    Wet-led pubs are best placed to capitalise on the demand for experiences as the growth in online delivery and competition from home entertainment means consumers are looking for more on a night out, according to leisure analysts Peel Hunt.

  • Seven Dials Market
    Opinion

    Running the halls

    2019-11-05T07:51:00Z

    Lower rents for operators, more choice for customers – food halls are being heralded as a win-win model for the eating out sector, writes Tony Naylor.