Analysis

  • News

    Berenberg: UK pubs and restaurants guide to reopening

    2020-07-03T07:27:00Z

    Having been closed for more than three months since the UK went into lockdown on 23 March, the UK’s pubs and restaurants will be allowed to reopen from this Saturday, 4 July. Having spoken to management teams across the sector numerous times over the last 19 weeks, we have pulled together a “cheat sheet” on reopening plans and key points to watch in the months ahead.

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    News

    Morgan Stanley on Mitchells & Butlers

    2020-07-03T07:27:00Z

    M&B’s pubs are mostly large, branded, food-led, freehold in residential areas, so better able to cope with Covid-19 pressures and take share as supply exits. We want to be positive, but its securitised debt needs the PLC to inject cash to fund it, and it might need to replace PLC debt with equity.

  • News

    J.P. Morgan on the UK pub sector

    2020-05-15T07:33:00Z

    Although PM Boris Johnson’s speech on Sunday appeared to create more confusion around broader re-opening plans, hopes have been raised about select openings at some point in July for the broader “hospitality” industry. While we are unsurprisingly left with more questions than answers, we thought a quick piece was merited to highlight our views, recent investor feedback, what we’re watching for re-openings, and some incremental news in the last two weeks. 

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    News

    Goodbody on The Restaurant Group

    2020-05-13T07:27:00Z

    While Restaurant Group has faced a number of well documented challenges before the advent of the current coronavirus crisis took hold, including the oversupply of branded restaurant chains in the UK, cost inflation, high rents and struggling legacy brands, the closure of the sector for a quarter has presented a ...

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    News

    ​Analysts’ verdict: Berenberg on City Pub Group

    2020-04-17T07:42:00Z

    Berenberg finds City Pub Group’s fundraise has left the company with a “substantial level of liquidity” and a “best-in-class balance sheet”, which it could deploy on cut-price acquisitions.

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    News

    Steve Gotham: Corporate grief and moving on

    2020-04-06T07:28:00Z

    In trying to come to terms with the monumental destruction and upheaval being wreaked by the coronavirus, it is helpful for both individuals and assorted business entities, to take some solace of sorts from the grief cycle. This highlights how there is a series of phases commonly associated with the grieving process – and helps to explain the roller coaster of emotions that are typically endured. Importantly within this, though sadly not available to all, there is a recovery outcome.

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    News

    Analysts’ verdict: Goodbody on the leisure shutdown

    2020-03-25T08:37:00Z

    With the pubs and restaurants now closed the remainder of the leisure sector saw further restrictions last night with collection and delivery now also being impacted.

  • News

    Goodbody on M&B, TRG, Marston’s

    2020-03-19T08:31:00Z

    Mitchells & Butlers, Restaurant Group and Marston’s all seeing a significant impact from COVID-19

  • News

    Morgan Stanley on M&B

    2020-03-19T08:31:00Z

    Jamie Rollo of Morgan Stanley gives his verdict on Mitchells & Butlers’ latest update. 

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    News

    BDO: ‘The contagion into a deep recession will happen very quickly’

    2020-03-19T08:30:00Z

    Widescale job losses in the restaurant and bar industry will plunge the UK economy into a deep recession, BDO partner Peter Hemington has told MCA.

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    News

    Goodbody on TRG

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    Restaurant Group will report a Q4 trading update in late January. At this point last year RTN gave full year LFL’s for the group and total sales. We forecast FY LFL sales growth of -0.8% in the Legacy business with LFL sales growth of 8.8% for Wagamama UK (implying a group FY LFL of just above 2%). As a reminder group LFL growth was +3.7% in the first 34 weeks.

  • News

    Goodbody on Marston’s

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    Management were quite open at their FY results a few weeks ago that it was disappointed with FY19 trading and would be working hard to remedy it in FY20. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver better YoY growth this Christmas particularly given its comp is easier ...

  • News

    Goodbody on Coffer Peach

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    The Coffer Peach data for the key 6 week Christmas trading period was released this morning. Sector like for likes were up 2.5%. Both Pubs and Restaurants saw a good LFL trading performance with restaurants +2.3% and pubs +2.7%. Within this wet led pubs slightly outperformed food led. Total sales growth for the cohort was +5.4%. The tracker added a new data point for bars which saw strong growth of 3.9%. The director of Coffer Corp leisure noted that “there is a post election sense of optimism”. 

  • News

    Goodbody on Mitchells & Butlers

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    Like for like sales growth for the first 14 weeks of the year to the 4th of January was +2.6% (versus our H1 expectation of c.2.2%) with food +3.0% and Drink +1.8%. Implies growth of +3.5% in the most recent 7 weeks (Food +4% & Drink +2.7%). Total sales growth for the 14 weeks is +2.6%. The festive period showed good LFL sales growth of +5.6% over the three weeks, with +6.5% growth across the 5 key festive days.

  • News

    Goodbody on Domino’s Q4 update

    2020-01-16T07:58:00Z

    We believe investors will begin to focus more keenly on the health of the core UK and ROI business given DOM’s decision to exit its International markets. For H219 we forecast +3.0% LFL sales growth ex-splits, and +1% incl splits, in the key UK division. At the Q3 stage UK LFL ex-splits was +3.0% (+1.4% incl splits) so we essentially expect a continuation of trends, although we would note the comp is more difficult in Q4 so the group will need a good finish to the year.

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    News

    J.P. Morgan Cazenove on Marston’s and M&B

    2020-01-13T08:28:00Z

    After strong outperformance in 2019, we are moving MARS and MAB to Neutral, from Overweight, as the current share prices have now “caught up” to reflect the fundamentals, in our estimation. MAB’s operational performance inflected during 2019, and MARS largely resolved fears around its leverage and dividend sustainability. In addition, ...

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    News

    Berenberg on City Pub Group

    2020-01-13T08:27:00Z

    This morning, The City Pub Group (CPC) released a full-year trading update, noting that due to a series of largely one-off issues, 2019 earnings are expected to be modestly below prior expectations. While we only reduce our 2019 sales numbers by c1%, the impact of operational gearing means that our 2019 EPS forecasts come down by c12%. The impact on outer years is far more modest and we continue to believe in CPC’s expansion plans – so while we reduce our price target to 220p, we maintain our Buy rating.

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    News

    Goodbody on Whitbread

    2020-01-13T08:21:00Z

    Whitbread - Thoughts into Q3 update, any confirmation of improving trends important

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    News

    J.P. Morgan and Goodbody on Mitchells & Butlers

    2020-01-10T08:34:00Z

    Robust Q120 LFL represents comparison-adjusted acceleration

  • News

    Jamie Rollo on pubs under the new Government

    2019-12-13T08:12:00Z

    UK pubs have been relatively resilient over the past few years, with industry LfL sales running up around 1%.